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The Theory that Explains Love Island

A new bombshell has entered the villa

When I started seeing Love Island clips all over my social media feeds this summer, I finally gave in and decided to figure out what all the hype was about. I knew of the show from its early years, but that was mostly because a student once sent me a clip of the finale where the winning couple must play a popular prisoner’s dilemma game: split the jackpot with your partner or try to steal the whole thing. (As far as I know, no winners of the U.S. version have ever stolen it, which is probably why that angle doesn’t get much attention anymore.)

I didn’t expect to get sucked down this rabbit hole. I jumped in while both the U.S. and U.K. shows were running, but I focused on the U.S. version this past summer. I don’t know how the producers physically do it, but they release a new episode almost every night for several weeks.

Keeping up was exhausting, especially for someone who doesn’t watch much TV. However, the social media buzz made it hard to look away. Once I realized the contestants were just part of a matching market, I knew I had to write a post for Monday Morning Economist. I was able to learn a lot about the general structure of the show thanks to people on the Love Island USA subreddit.

Monday Morning Economist
The Surprising Economics of Love Island
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One of the most fun parts of turning that post into a video for Econ Nerds was getting to go a little deeper into the economics than I usually can in a weekly newsletter. Most readers don’t want a long essay to start their week, so I typically keep it short and let the links serve as the deep dive for people who want to explore more. But a five-minute video? That’s totally different than a five-minute read. This format gave me space to actually explain the stable matching problem in more detail and show how it plays out in the villa.

Now, back to Love Island! As the season came to an end, I had gone from binging episodes days after they aired to tuning in live just to keep up with the online chatter. That tension between watching for your own enjoyment versus watching to stay part of the conversation felt like an entirely separate economics problem. I had to figure out how to balance the cost of time against the social benefit of being “in the know.” Considering I’m still talking about the show, I think the benefits outweigh the cost!

This is a guest post/video by Jadrian Wooten, check out his substack:

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